Choosing an NCAA Basketball March Madness bracket is extremely difficult and almost impossible to guess 100% correctly due to the frequent upsets. It is very fun and is a hobby of mine as I enjoy watching college basketball partially due to its unpredictable nature. There are several key things to know about march madness brackets in order to have a successful contender in your office pool, or ESPN or Yahoo pools. I've been doing March Madness for about four years now and I've been fairly successful, winning money every year in at least a 15 person pool. My advice is golden though, and I advise you to research and guess on the match-ups because no one has the absolute knowledge on what's going to happen. Most importantly, remember its all about having fun and making assumptions!
It is important to know that in all the history of the NCAA tournament a 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed, thus, in my opinion, you should always choose the number 1 seed.
I think the same goes for a number 2 seed versus a number 15 seed. You should always choose the number 2 seed because the probability is very low that the number 15 seed will pull the upset.
The 3 vs. 14 match-up is where there's always one match-up that's questionable. I would still go with the 3 seed, but this is the first place that you could make a guess about an upset.
The 4 vs. 13 match-up is like the 3 vs. 14 match-up; there seems to almost always be a questionable match-up. This year Cleveland St. upset Wake Forest, so, although the odds are against you, if you want to be unlike everyone else, it's in your favor to make a guess on one of these match-ups.
The 5 vs. 12 match-up is almost always a guaranteed upset. This is where it really starts getting tricky. This year Arizona, Western Kentucky, and Wisconsin were 12 seed upsets. Arizona wasn't even supposed to be in the tournament and ended up going to the Sweet 16- the farthest a Pac-10 team went in the tourney this year.
The 6 vs. 11 match-up always has an upset in one of the four match-ups and these match-ups could make the difference in your tournament standings because not everyone picks the same upsets. This year Dayton was the only upset in this match-up but two of the other three match-ups were decided by one point each.
Once you get to the 7 vs. 10 match-up you're pretty much on an even playing field. All of these teams deserve to be in the tournament and could make it as far as the Sweet 16 because they can compete with almost every other team. There were two 7 vs. 10 upsets this year and these match-ups are almost always chosen by guessing or chance. I do know that almost 68 percent of the people this year chose Maryland over California and it happened... so you never know.
The 8 vs. 9 match-up is almost always due to chance and probability. It's very difficult to assure a winner and this is why it's best to do ESPN because you can do up to 10 brackets.
If you're an extreme competitor and pay a lot of attention to NCAA basketball then I encourage you to do research and look more into these match-ups and all the factors involved. If your just interested in trying it I encourage you to guess or just have fun with it. Most importantly, remember that all the "normal" choices (like choosing the winners because they're higher seeds) is the way most people think, which is why I encourage you to go out on a limb and choose unexpected, but possible winners.